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07/05/2025

War betwewn India and Pakistan - even if as far as I'm aware neither has officially declared it.

Pretty scary on a global scale as they are both nucelear powers, I can only hope they de-escalate but I severly doubt that either will for a while - they both seem far too stubborn and full of hate for the opposite side to do anything that's percieved as letting the other off.

I hope I'm wrong of course.

If not, just another mess we made back in the process of decolonisation coming back with deadly consqeunces.

Not much I can do, so I hope the above statement doesn't come across as callous and dismissive of the conflict. I hope Pakistan just gives India the alleged terrorists because there is no way Modi will back down - being harsh on Muslim extremism is one of (as far as I have seen) one of the key aspects of his appeal - without getting a "win". Again, I hope I'm wrong the "targeted action" will be enough - I guess that partially depends on whether or not Pakistan responds.

I also hope that China or us don't get dragged in (China because of their support for Pakistan and border dispute with India and us because of one nation trying to make us take responsibility for the problems we caused) and raise the damage causedd by potential nucelear war even wider.

Us getting involved is probably just me always thinking of the worst possible outcome, as if I were Indian or Pakistani I'd want the British government as far away from us as possible. But I can honestly see China getting dragged in if India accuses them of also harbouring terrorists as part of support for Pakistan.

It's also a little disturbing to see how nationalistic the general populace of both sides seem to be - and how secure the Indians particular seem to be in the idea that they are invincible and that the international community hates Pakistan as much as them and thinks India can do no wrong. There's clearly some popular support for extrme action.

I hope that's the craziest voices just being the loudest.

03/05/2025

Massive moment in politics yesterday with Labour losing the byelection in Runcorn and Helsby to Reform in what appears to have been a safe seat for them (even if by such a small margin) and the Tories failing to secure what should have been safe councils like Buckinghamshire.

I expected Labour to loose out in the North East over immigration but I'm suprised the Conservatives got so battered - I exepcted a decline to be sure but I thought it would take longer.

While Reform UK has definitively surged and are the most likely party to form a government next election except for Labour, the media seems to be underplaying the Lib Dems who now have the second highest amount of councillers - if the Conservatives and Labour continue to fall at the rate they're going then the Lib Dems (who love to protray themselves as the centrist party) seem like they'll be the ones to win out.

Labour is already far harsher on immigration than most people realise, and I wouldn't be suprised if they actually go through massive cut downs on it now that they've seen that Reform isn't just a threat to the Tories. If they do go through with it I wonder if it will be 'too little too late' for anti-immigration supporters and they'll support Reform to stop allmigration or if it will actually satisfy them. If so, I wonder what the result will be - Reform are mostly known and getting support for their anti-migrant stance (they wouldn't be so popular in the North East if their economic policies - which are basically Thatcherite - were more well-known, I believe or at least want to hope) and if the public thought migration had been "sorted" what would be left for the party to revolve their identity around - would they go full racist?